Get it while you can.

Dodge predicts brisk sales for Challenger

April 17, 2008

Dodge expects hot sales for the first two years with its new Challenger sport coupe and has built a business plan in which the car will make money over its life cycle if sales fall off then.


The forecast is refreshingly realistic. Performance coupes, with the notable exception of the evergreen Ford Mustang, generally sell strongly for a couple of years, then fall sharply as new models take the spotlight in the trend-driven market segment. Despite decades of history, most automakers seem surprised when their new coupes follow that pattern, making Dodge's strategy refreshingly realistic.

Chrysler expects to sell 20,000 to 30,000 Challengers a year once it has the full model line in production. Chrysler will build a limited edition of 6,400 425-horsepower Challenger SRT8 versions for the 2008 model year. The full model line hits the road this fall as 2009 models, adding a 250-horsepower 3.5-liter V6 and 370-horsepower 5.7-liter Hemi V8. Production of 2009 Challengers begins this summer at Chrysler's Brampton, Ontario, plant.

The Challenger's projected sales graph looks like a hockey stick, level for a couple of years and then declining.

 

I still think they can sell more than that, I think they would be wise to aim higher than that.

 

Well I would hope so...how many of us gave up the downpayment without even a test ride?

 

Well, that just sucks.

 

In all seriousness, I think the longevity of the Challenger now rests entirely on gasoline prices. I get off work about 1 a.m. and fairly often, my wife and I go to the one 24-hour Starbucks in our part of town. The past three weeks or so, the amount of traffic at that time of night has declined SIGNIFICANTLY -- and this corresponds exactly with gasoline going over $3.15 a gallon. In fact, on our 6.4-mile round trip, it's to the point that now, we sometimes see ONLY one or two police cars -- NO OTHER traffic at all. Mind you, we live in San Antonio, Texas, where private vehicles are king. In the almost 26 years I've lived here, I've NEVER seen it like this -- and that includes living through a couple of oil recessions (a major deal in Texas). Usually, even in the worst of times, you'd never know it from the amount of traffic on S.A.'s streets. Has anyone else noticed anything like this?

 

Agreed. Their sales projections may be "refreshingly realistic" and their "hockey-stick" shaped sales graph may be right, but I think they'd be closer to reality to double those starting numbers. I don't think 20K to 30K units will be enough to satisfy demand in the first year. In year two and three, as the new wears off, it may be too late to capitalize on the initial frenzy. Then the "trend-driven market segment" will move on to newer things.

I think they can sell at least 20K R/Ts and SRTs in the first year, and I think they'll match that with SEs. Well, if they build that many. [&:]

 

It's bad, i'm in the home improvement supply industry and we saw this as early as this past August, it litterally dropped like a rock!
People will not go out of their way - even a little, to get or find something, wheather it be for buisiness or pleasure. Funny - i still see the same amount of cops on the highway as before. The funny thing i notice is all these hybrid cars on the roads are driving as fast or faster than the gasoline cars, I was pacing one guy last week in his Prius with my 300C, he was doing 85MPH, you can't tell me ALL these guys/gals buying these things really care about consumption!

 

Not to spund inscincere here, but Dodge predicting how well they'll sell........ Isn;t that like asking a parent how good their child is?????? Just curious myself.. I am sure the wil do well, but of cousre the parent company is going to talk it up some.

 

I had heard recently that that 30k number had been bumped up to 45k. Also if they start selling like crazy there's no reason dodge can't bump up the production.

 

Talk it up? So you think Dodge is inflating the numbers??? You think the Challenger will sell fewer than 20,000 copies??? I'll take that bet!

Dodge could've sold 10,000 SRTs in December alone, and that was sight unseen. Many who placed orders were denied (or rolled over to '09) by the limited run of 6400.

Yes, the '08 was labelled a "collectible." And yes, there was pent-up demand from 2+ years of waiting. But let's list the reasons the '09 will be easier to sell than the '08 was in December. First, it'll be on the lot. Most people prefer to actually see a car before they buy it. Yet 10,000 people were willing to put down money on faith. If that doesn't boggle your mind I can assure you it raised some eyebrows at Dodge. Second, there will be available models that are cheaper than the SRT. Many who couldn't afford the SRT will buy an R/T or an SE. Third, a lot of people didn't even know about the '08 pre-order. And don't forget the manual transmission; the V6 and 5.7's better gas mileage; more choices of options, colors, etc.; the list goes on and on.

If they only make 20,000 of these things for the '09 model year, most of us will still be waiting for ours this time next year. It'll be like trying to get your hands on a Wii!