Old 03-05-2008, 06:20 AM
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stevelegel
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Default RE: The current economy and the direction fuel prices are headed

I like the world too, and my business continues to fluorish.

Never the less, we have a world economy, not a global economy...the playing fields are not level, trade is not freely exchanged.

Any economy needs manufacturing to bring "value" or "wealth" into it. It is the taking of raw materials and making them into something that people can use that "creates" money. Without manufacturing an economy will fail. Service, creativity, healthcare, all support manufacturing and make it better, but they do not create "wealth" (not meaning wealthy people, I mean "value" in the economic sense). Agriculture creates value, just not enough of it.

2. Americans are the world's consumer. Without us, the world has no real market in which to sell goods. I see that the American Market is just about saturated. I get a ton of junk mail flyers every week, I look through them and cannot think of a single thing I need to buy. People have garages so stuffed with stuff they cannot park their cars. And so the cycle will roll along, always some, Jeremiah, like you and I, continuing to prosper and work hard and do well in business. But as consumers cut back, manufacturinig will cut back and infrastructure will cut back.

It will cut back to a point where unmet needs are born, and growth will follow. In 1981, we in Detroit felt a hard long auotmotive recession. Eventually, people had cars that were no longer servicable for them (remember the cars of the late 70's early 80's?) AND new technology of computers and cell phones created new demand in the market place and manufacturing resumed.

Among my concerns is the increase in technology. Manufacturing jobs are not totally lost to foreign countries based soley on wage. But technology (robotics, laser guides and computers) now do the work of many, and do it better. For example, we toured Ford's Wixom assembly for the Thunderbird. The raw body panels are picked up by magentic robotic arms, laser lights guide them into alignment and then robotic arms weld them into place. Used to take 30 to 40 workers. Now, one guy at a control panel , and one trying stay out of the way. The work is better too.

Workers elsewhere sold short. At one time families across the country aspired to move to Detroit and get a job in the auto industry. But workers in other parts of the country sold short at $16.00 per hour insteads of holding out for the $22.00 that was paid in Detroit. As workers around the world underbid each other, eventually that $16.00 hour per job at Saturn in TN will go away too, to the guy in Hondurous working for 35 cents.

Foreign workers are not stupid or lazy, they just don't speak English. If Iran can build a nuclear reactor or weapons, they can build a tractor or an airport.

I am not pessimistic. When the worker in Sri Lanka is making $22.00 bucks per hour, America and its hard working well trained workforce will flourish.

I worry about America's young adults. In a job market that pays 10/hr with no benefits, how will they buy a house, or car or take vacations and provide for children, or get their teeth fixed? I also worry about their smarts and work ethic. How will a generation brought up on video games, that is becoming obese, can't do well in reading, science and math, hope to compete, locally or globally?

There will always be those that do well. There was wealth and luxury in Europe and Germany during world War II, even here in the states, even during the depression.

I share my opinion and concerns in the spirit I saw the thread, no soapboxing.

Gas price here in metro Detroit $2.99 no lead regular, up to $3.19 premium

Steve Legel