The Auto Sleuth
 

http://www.mercurynews.com/weekenddrive/ci_8140633

[quote]The Auto Sleuth

Hot off the press

n Two-door CTS appears to be a done deal: You might have seen it at the recent North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Mich. auto show. Well, the Sleuth is here to tell you it s going to happen sometime next year. General Motors will produce a version of its Cadillac CTS coupe concept beginning in the summer of 2009. GM is Cadillac s parent. The CTS coupe program began back in 2006 under the codename GMX226. The CTS coupe will roll off GM s Lansing (Mich.) Grand River plant. Production is slated to total 15,000-20,000 units a year. The car might be called CTC, but recent trademark filings by GM indicate it might be called CT6 instead. The production version will look similar to the concept with only a few changes expected. Look for the road version to add a decklid spoiler and forgo the show car s center exhaust setup for a more conventional one. It looks hot. It will be hot.

n New BMW will be half 3-series car, half X3 sport ute: As the Sleuth uncovered a few months ago, BMW is working on a new vehicle that s directly based on the 3-Series car. The Sleuth s insiders report that BMW engineers are using the body of a 3-Series wagon on top of a sport ute chassis. Company insiders say the new model codenamed F3 will probably arrive as a 2010 model. The ride will provide the high seating position of a sport ute with the layout of a traditional station wagon.

n Maybe we should just stop talking about the NSX until we actually see it?: The Sleuth
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has told you about the on-again, off-again story of the NSX supercar from Acura. It was on again and, well, consider delayed again. This time it s for styling reasons. Honda showed its Advanced Sports Car Concept at last year s North American International Auto show in Detroit, Mich., supposedly a preview of the next-generation NSX, but failed to deliver a production prototype despite promises to the contrary at the 2007 Tokyo auto show in October. According to Dick Colliver, executive vice president of American Honda Motor Co., the delay is internal. All of the designers are working together on the NSX, but they can t agree on the styling, he told trade publication Automotive News. Acura is Honda s upscale division. Collier also said that Acura left the last-generation NSX on the market for too long without any significant upgrades. He said that would not be the case with the next iteration of the car. We must get it right. We must have the right image. A lot of it is perception with the customer, Collier said, although the Sleuth thinks the ongoing indecision can t be doing much for that public perception. Honda says the next-generation NSX will hit the market before the redesigned Acura RL, which will bow in 2010.

n BMW considers entirely new brand for its green cars: The word out of Bavaria, Germany, is that BMW is now considering developing a whole new brand to market fuel-efficient vehicles without interfering with the image of its current brands and models. Sources said BMW has decided against transforming its Mini line into that role, buying another automaker, or reviving the Riley or Triumph brands. Creating a new brand might be the most viable option since smaller cars with low-displacement engines or gas/electric hybrid drivetrains might not fit with the BMW or Mini program. While BMW has developed a hybrid drivetrain for its X6 tall wagon and next 7-Series sedan, the green brand would go far beyond this in terms of efficiency, sacrificing performance and luxury.

n Volvo has big plans for new tall wagon: This Swedish brand didn t show much new stuff at the recent North American International Auto show in Detroit, Mich., other than its new R-design trim level. However, Volvo has bigger plans for the Geneva, Switzerland, show in March. There, the company will officially unveil its XC60 tall wagon, a direct answer to Acura s RDX

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Great find Skippy! Does 30,000 units in 2009 seem a bit low to anybody else? I mean, aren't they planning to offer 2, V8 versions AND a six clylinder too? I bet they could probably sell 30,000 V6s if they priced it right. I dunno....

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

How many units a year is Ford pushing out on the Mustang? Not even sure why I'm asking but I'm hoping for a decent comparison I guess.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

30k definitely sounds low. They've already said they took preorders for about 9,000 2008s and they're only making 6400. So at 30k a year that's 2500 a month meaning the whole first month (and then some) of challenger production is gonna go to the remaining people who placed orders for 08s.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

i believe that in 2006, ford produced about 166,000 mustangs...im not sure if that includes models allocated to the likes of saleen, roush, etc..

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

And about 83,000 of them went to hertz...........

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Cool, thanks for info!

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

I do think it sounds low but there in lies the question of who at Crysler HQ is doing the deep dive on this type of stuff in determination of production numbers. Additionally, with the 3rd shift cuts at Brampton, what are the numbers they can actually meet on those lines? If they have to ramp up for any miscalculations in demand, will they be able to raise production despite shift cuts? I guess we will find out as the year moves forward. Let's hope lots more info flows out of Chrysler HQ as the Challenger launches this coming Wednesday.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

it does not make sense... why sell 30,000 units when you can sell 166,000?.. we all know the challenger is going to outsell[sm=shades.gif] the mustang

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

And who knows what will happen to demand once the Challengers start hitting the street... :eek:

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Yeah exactly. If the 09s start production and are going out to dealers by July, the leftover orders from 08 will be only be finally getting filled by august. But another 2500 in august means less than 1 challenger per dealer. And we all know there are a lot of us waiting for these 09s who didn't even bother getting on a waiting list for an 08 for whatever reason. I can't imagine we'll see Challengers sitting on dealer lots for more than a day until at least december or jan 09 >_<

Personally I think dodge should produce as many challengers as quickly as they can while it's hot. Everyone knows the appeal for sports cars like this lasts a very short while in the mainstream. Not to mention in 09 the camaro comes out.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Not to mention CAFE requirements, fuel prices, general state of the economy, the drive for alternative fuels, etc.. In reality the Challenger may not have a very long life expectancy... :eek:

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

i really dont think that CAFE will do anything except for tack more guzzler tax onto the sticker price...

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

May be right in some respects... however, Chrysler and any other manufacturers out of compliance will be fined, which will in turn be passd on to the consumer along with GG tax. This will become progressively more expensive as time goes until consumers become unable or unwilling to pay. I also feel like there is a drive in people concerning the "Green Initiatives" that is likely to generate a stigma in certain circles that will grow larger and larger as time goes on. As for alternative fuels, it seems like the industry and consumers are getting ripe for fuel solutions other than our traditional petro products. As the industry takes off it will leave internal cumbustion gasoline engines in the dust. My guess is there will be a dramatic change in the traditional fuel delivery systems (gas stations) as we know them, which in turn will make fueling cars with gasoline few and far between, and more specialized and expensive. Sure, all these things may take some time to come about, but eventually, they will come about. Question is... how eventually?? ;)

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

I believe this has been thoroughly researched and written. While I would continue to wish I could think otherwise, this is absolutely right on. Thanks for the nice write up.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

i just dont agree. money talks, and there arent many industries in the entire world that harvest more cash than the oil industry. the idea of an alternatively powered vehicle is not a new concept, as companies have been working on it for years, but where are they?

"too expensive to produce"..or they talk about production, like the chevrolet volt, and a friend of mine who is REALLY into the idea of electric vehicles told me that the volt will cost 40+.

there is simply no "good" replacement right now for the internal combustion engine. alternative fuels for the conbustion engine, perhaps, but these electric cars that cost a fortune, will only got a short distance, and are terribly slow arent going to be flooding the market any time soon. i mean, look at the cars that were shown at the auto show. these cars are all tiny death traps...like slower, smaller versions of the smart car. its safer to walk on the highway. these super-euro designed vehicles are ridiculous...maybe they are fine on the streets of europe, where there are very few fast cars and the roads are 12 feet wide, but that junk doesnt float here.

i expect for my kids to be driving before there is any flood of alternative powered combustion engines or electric vehicles in the american market, as big business dictates what happens and when, and the auto industry combined with the oil industry is going to make sure that they are comfortable before consumers are comfortable. btw, my kids dont exist yet...

everyone quotes "gas prices" as the reason for the muscle cars to go away...there arent many countries in the world who pay less than americans do for gasoline.'

right now, it doesnt matter how much GG tax the companies tack on, as there is no viable option. they can charge 10,000 on every car, and people are still going to buy them, or not buy new cars because there is no other choice, and the junk that debuted at the autoshow will only sit in my driveway when every one of my other vehicles has been confiscated by the government.

im not trying to argue with you, as im interested in your point of view here. i feel that the current offerings of alternative powered vehicles is a complete joke, which is why i dont forsee anything other than what we have in the next 20 years.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

As far as the 30K seeming low; might be, but this could be classic expectation management. Perceptually, it's better to be wrong on a low number than a high number. So if they say 30 and in some odd happenstance only sell 30, "Wow, the management at Chrysler obviously knows what it's talking about and is capable of inventory and production management", if they double that in sales/orders then they come off with "We knew this product was going to be hot, but we had no idea", if they sell slightly less "Then they blame the gas prices" if they come out radically less, the American auto consumer is spineless, weak minded and completely with out pinache. OK, I might be a little biased on the last observation.... ;)

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

30,000 for 2009 feels about right to me. The Challenger isn't going to be as popular in general because it's a 2-door, so for many or most buyers it'll probably be a second car or a weekend car. For some reason, people still buy the Mustang in droves (really though, what part of the sales are to rental car agencies??) but most sports cars seem to sell around 30k a year. Plus by 2009, people will be tightening their belts if we have a recession and oil prices should still be very high. And you'll have the new Camaro with which the Challenger will have to share sales. So 30,000 should be enough to find one at MSRP, but not so many as to see a Challenger 5-6 times a day. I hope.:D

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

I'm on the other end of the spectrum. I wouldn't mind seeing a parking lot filled with them. I'm not about exclusivity; I'm about enjoying the aesthetics of a nicely designed form. Kind of like going through the world filled with 36-24-36, am I going to find issue with it? Doubt it! :-)

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

LOL, I like your thinking.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

More like 500

2006 Ford Shelby GT-H Hertz Edition
The 2006 Ford Shelby GT-H commemorates the 40-year anniversary of famed Shelby/Hertz GT350H "Rent-A-Racer" program. Shelby and Ford Racing give the Mustang GT V8/automatics extra "show," and added "go" to make the Shelby GT-H a special run of about 500 units that will be available for rent exclusively through the Hertz Fun Collection at select airport locations. The GT-H packs Ford Racing performance and handling with the classic Shelby Black & Gold Hertz look.
http://www.mustangheaven.com/stangsp...6shelbygth.htm

PS: I'm not sure about 2006 thru 2008, but evidently there were 160,412 total Mustang units produced in MY 2005. Also discovered mine is one of only 641 (GT coupe in redfire metallic clearcoat w/ manual tranny with dark charcoal/red interior) AKA the interior upgrade package & interior color accent package. Sure gonna hate to see her gallop off into the sunset, but I know what's waiting for me down the trail. A 2009 R/T Challanger with a 6-speed manual in HEMI Orange Pearlcoat or Plum Crazy Purple! Exterior color is gonna be a "gametime decision", provided Purple is even in the offering for 2009. YEEEEEHAAAAAW!
http://www.mustangheaven.com/Product...197Mustang.htm

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

I agree with your entire statement except for the "slower" part. The electric engine powered cars are faster than the combustion engine. We have a guy in Portland Oregon that races his electric and usually beats everyone in his class. He was featured in the Wall Street Journal about a year ago. No one wants to race against him because of the stigma of being beat by an electric.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118593442187584293.html

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Electric motors have the advantage of constant torque, so they have higher torque right off the line rather than an increase in torque with increased rpm's as the internal cumbustion gas powered engines. The other advantage is the weight of the batteries gives a traction advantage. The combination of these facts and physics definately works to the advantage of the electrics. They don't sound near as nice though! :D

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

See the hp/tq created by an electric car at this link. It far exceeds even the SRT8 Challenger.

https://dodgechallenger.com/forums/m_23229/tm.htm

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

so one electric car is fast? i could also say that dodge miradas are fast, and i can provide 3 or 4 examples of miradas that will stomp 95% of the new cars sold in the world...

that electric mustang is 80,000 dollars plus the cost of the mustang (25,000ish), it has a lower top speed than my stratus, and sounds like it has similar stated 0-60 to the mirada (the mirada cost around 7,000 with parts). mind you, those performance numbers are mentioned, ive never seen an electric car run anywhere near that fast, but im sure that theyre fairly accurate. it will also only go 100-125 miles when "conservatively driven", and im guessing that doesnt include many 130mpg romps or many digs from 0-60 in 4 seconds. however, for the discussion, ill use their performance and "fuel cost" numbers.

it costs "around 2 cents per mile" and has a range of 100-125 miles. that means that you can drive up to 62.5 miles away with the realistic hopes of getting home, unless youre always driving somewhere that has plugs in the parking lot, assuming that it uses a standard connection.

say that you have a 50 mile one way commute, which i did in the stratus for about 3 years. 100 miles a day at the 25mpg that the stratus averages...means that i use 4 gallons of gas for my work commute...the current price here is around 3 bucks a gallon, so i would spend about 12 dollars a day in gas to go 100 miles..thats 12 cents a mile. in a car that doesnt get all that good of mileage.

the cost of the 300EV is around 104,000 (80,000 mod cost + 24,000 ford cost), and the cost of my stratus was about 25,000. that is around an 80,000 dollar difference with tax, title, other stuff...

so my annual fuel costs if i didnt drive anywhere else, and i went to work for the required amount of time under most salary contracts (2080 hours, divided by 8 hour days is 260 days) would be 12 dollars a day times 260 days, or 3120 USD.

that mustang making the same trip, the same number of times, but only paying 2 cents per mile, would be spending 2 dollars a day, or 520 dollars per year...saving you 2600 a year in gas costs.

to absorb the price difference of buying the car based on fuel economy, you would have to drive that mustang "conservatively" to work for the next THIRTY YEARS. (104,000-25,000=79,000 79,000/2600=30.38 years)

they express the "fuel cost" as being 2 cents a mile where cars that arent practically make believe are expressed in MPG. everyone thinks "wow, 2 cents per mile is cheap", but for a car that gets 30mpg at 3 bucks a gallon, its only spending 10 cents a mile, and at that rate, it will take forever to absorb the price difference in the two vehicles.

honestly, who wants to drive a car for 30 years? who really thinks that any ford product will last 30 years? :D

lets talk about something breaking. just a trip to the local...ummm...electric auto repair shop? i dont know of any of those, and even if i did, i bet that its not cheap. i bet that the 75 bucks and hour price of the dealership looks like a deal compared to what these super specialized E-car mechanics charge, not to mention the rare parts.

so, a very very expensive car that is slower than my stratus and about even in the 0-60 with my mirada (if those numbers are accurate), that will likely cost a fortune to repair and it has to last 30 years to BREAK EVEN with my stratus rt based on fuel costs and purcahse price...

doesnt sound like a great deal to me. its alot like driving 2 hours to get gas for 5 cents a gallon less than the shop2 miles away.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Even the fast Electric Tesla car did not meet DOT standards for crash testing and it may get a waiver.

I guess just don't crash in the car. :D

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

because we all know, when you get liquified by a semi hitting you head on, its good to be getting slightly better cost per mile than a car that did pass those tests...:D

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Where I live it gets cold and dark in the winter, and my neighbor, that has a Hybrid Camry, says his engine is always running when it is cold and/or dark, can you still go a mile for 2 cents then? What do I do if I am stuck in traffic (when cold or dark) and need to fill up do I just ask my boss for a days vacation so I can fill up at my nearest electric station? My goodness I never thought of this, why don't I just park under a street light and use the solar charger on the roof of my car? Na then I would need 2 days vacation and get arrested for stealing from the city's power grid.
Maybe in 10 years when the battery technology (if ever) lets me actually drive 300 miles in real world (not sunny SoCal) conditions I would consider electric as an option.

RE: The Auto Sleuth
 

Again, check out ZapX at www.zapworld.com. :-)